Solar FAQs and Global Renewable Energy.ppt

Solar FAQs and Global Renewable Energy Overarching Assumptions By 2050 we’ll need 15 TW, by 2100 30 TW, of new power ? = N · (GDP/N) · (?/GDP) Even if N saturates and ?/GDP continues to decrease, GDP/N will increase All or most of this new power should be C-neutral 1-2 GtC/yr emissions (1940’s level) implies 550 ppmv atmospheric C and ΔT~2°C, and is already considered risky 6-7 GtC/yr emissions (2000’s level) is (perhaps nonlinearly) riskier All of most of this new C-neutral power must be chemical 80% of energy consumed at point-of-use is chemical Estimating Theoretical Potentials Estimating Extractable Technical Potentials Table of Results Solar Wind Ocean Waves Geothermal Summary * Purpose of Solar FAQs document: Compile self-consistent set of supporting analyses and references Premise: The Sun is a singular C-neutral solution to our future energy needs, one whose capacity dwarfs fossil, nuclear, wind, … Pfill (constant) pharvest (variable) E/tdiss (variable) Steady State: Pfill = E/tdiss + pharvest No harvesting: Pfill = E/tdiss Max harvesting: Pfill = pharvest 2.4 TW tidal friction 1-3 ms/century lengthening of the day ~ 0 TW human harvesting Heat (TWt) Electrical (TWe) Chemical (TWc) Mechanical (TWm) Thermodynamic limit (1-Tl/Th) ~1/2 of Betz (16/27=59%) limit (33%) Theoretical Extractable Technical Chemical (TWc) Fraction allowed by known technology 2010 EERE H2O electrolysis efficiency target (75%) 15 TWe = 0.17% of the earth’s surface (~ Venezuela) at 10% efficiency Average solar energy density W/m2 40% Torrid 225 52% Temperate 150 8% Frigid 75 Average 175 Photons 89,000 TWp Electrical Chemical 58,000 TWc Chemical 61,000 TWc Chemical 19,000 TWc Heat Mechanical Electrical Theoretical Extractable Technical 2001 Actual Thermodynamic limit for un-concentrated sunlight (68%) Thermodynamic limit for concentrated sunlight (87%) 100% 33% Chemical 7,500 TWc Chemical 2,500 TWc Chemical 5,600 TWc Land only (29%) and Temperate+Torrid only (97%) Curren