省域人口、经济增长与能源消费的面板数据分析.pdfVIP

省域人口、经济增长与能源消费的面板数据分析 吴玉鸣 （广西师范大学经济管理学院，西南城市与区域发展研究中心，广西 桂林 541004 ） 摘 要：人口增长、经济增长与能源消费之间存在着密切的关系。本文建立了区域能源需求 函数，运用面板数据模型定量研究了中国省域人口增长、能源价格、经济增长及产业结构与 能源消费之间的关系。结果表明，人口增长、经济增长及产业结构的变化都表现为短期内是 中国省域能源需求函数的重要决定性因素；以工业增加值占 GDP 的比重衡量的产业结构仍 然是目前省域能源需求的最主要决定因素；缓慢的区域人口增长对区域能源需求的影响是稳 定的，短期内这种态势不会有大的改变。为了缓解能源需求快速增长带来的压力，需要认真 贯彻执行计划生育的基本国策，继续坚持较为严格的人口控制政策。 关键词：人口增长，经济增长；能源消费；面板数据模型 中图分类号：F4 文献标识码：A Panel Data Analysis of Population, Economic Growth, and Energy Consumption of China’s Provinces WU Yu-ming （School of Economics Management，Southwest Institute for Urban Regional Development, Guangxi Normal University，Guilin 541004 ） Abstract ：There is close relationship between population growth, economic growth, and energy consumption. This paper sets up a regional energy demand function, and uses panel data model to study the relationship between population growth, energy price, economic growth, industrial structure and energy consumption of China’s provinces quantitatively. The results show that population, economic growth, and industrial structure are the important and determinate factors of the China’s provincial energy demand function for the short-run. But the industrial structure measured by industrial value added is still the most important factor which influences the provincial energy demand. Whereas the regional slow population growth has a stable influence on provincial energy demand though the situation will not change for the short-run. Strict birth-control policy will be performed aimed at mitigating the energy demand pressure. Key words ：population growth; economic growth; energy consumption; panel data model 一、引言 经济增长与能源消费之间存在非常密切的联系。一般来说，就整体经济发展速度和发展 水平而言，随着国民经济和社会的持续发展，能源消费量将会相应地增加，否则国民经济