USDA全球棉花市场与贸易数据(2013年3月).pdfVIP

United States Department of Agriculture Cotton: Foreign Agricultural World Markets and Trade Service Circular Series FOP 03 13 March 2013 World Stocks Continue to Climb According to the USDA 2013/14 outlook, world cotton ending stocks are projected to rise for the fourth consecutive year, to a record 88.5 million bales, despite lower production and higher consumption. USDA also projects the A-index will be about unchanged. China, as in the previous two seasons, is forecast to hold nearly all the expansion in stocks. Assumed continuation of the China reserve policy would keep nearly half of the world ’s stocks off the market and limit supplies to local mills. In the rest of the world, stocks are expected to remain relatively stable. World trade is projected down 11 percent, but China’s imports are forecast down over 40 percent, as quantities released from the State Reserve are expected to rise. However, growth in spinning outside of China is projected to boost import demand. U.S. exports are forecast to fall nearly 10 percent on reduced production and the lower world import demand. The full 2013/14 outlook is available at /oce/forum/presentations/CottonOutlook.pdf Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA Overview Global cotton stocks for 2012/13 are essentially unchanged as higher production is offset by increased consumption. Trade was raised, primarily due to a higher import forecast for China. U.S. ending stocks are down on higher exports. The season average farm price is raised to 71.5 cents/pound on continued strong prices. Prices The U.S. spot price and the A-Index continued upward as China’s reserve policy continues to isolate more supplies from the world market. 2012/