ch18股权估价模型.pptVIP

Summary 预期收益增长率与公司的预期可获利润率和红利政策有关。它们的关系可表示 如下： g＝(新投资的ROE）×（1-红利派出比例） The expected growth rate of earnings is related both to the firm’s expected profitability and to its dividend policy. The relationship can be expressed as g =(ROE on new investment) X (1-Dividend payout ratio) Summary 通过将未来投资的股权收益率 (ROE)与市场资本化率 k的比较，你可以将任何红利贴现模型与简单的资本收益模型联系起来。如果两个比率相等，则股票的内在价值降至每股预期收益（ EPS）除以k。 You can relate any DDM to a simple capitalized earnings model by comparing the expected ROE on future investments to the market capitalization rate, k. If the two rates are equal, then the stock’s intrinsic value reduces to expected earnings per share (EPS) divided by k. Summary 许多分析家用估计的下一年的每股收益乘以市盈率 (P/E)比率得出股票的估值。 P/E值是通过一些实证的方法获得的，这一方法可能与红利贴现模型的一些形式是一 致的，尽管常常存在差异。 Many analysts form their estimate of a stock’s value by multiplying their forecast of next year’s EPS by a P/E multiple derived from some empirical rule. This rule can be consistent with some version of the DDM, although often it is not. Summary 自由现金流是财务管理中最常用的方法。假定全部是权益融资，分析家首先估计公司的全部价值为预期未来自由现金流的现值，然后加上由债务融资产生的避税值， 最后减去权益之外的所有其他债权。只要资本化率反映金融杠杆的情况，这种方法与红利贴现模型和资本收益方法是一致的。 The free cash flow approach is the one used most often in corporate finance. The analyst first estimates the value of the entire firm as the present value of expected future free cash flows, assuming all-equity financing, then adds the value of tax shields arising from debt financing, and finally subtracts the value of all claims other than equity. This approach will be consistent with the DDM and capitalized earnings approaches as long as the capitalization rate is adjusted to reflect financial leverage. Summary 我们在固定增长的红利贴现模型情况下探讨了通货膨胀对股价的影响，虽然传统的理论认为通货膨胀对真实股票收益不造成什么影响，但最近的历史数据表明，通货膨胀与真实股市收益呈强烈的负相关性。引起这种负相关性的原因有以下四种不同的解释： a. 经济“震荡”在引起高通货膨胀的同时降低真实收益。 b. 高通货膨胀增加了股票的风险。 c. 由于通货膨胀导致的税收体制中的扭曲，降低了真实税后收益和红利。 d. 货币“假象”。 We explored the effects of inflation on stock prices in the c