杂谷脑流域梯级水电站中长期水文径流情势分析及其预测系统的研究.pdfVIP

2013 电力系统自动化专委会学术交流研讨会论文集 杂谷脑流域梯级水电站中长期水文径流情势分析及预测 系统研究 吴成明，王婷乐，姚维为，董文静 （三峡大学电气与新能源学院，湖北宜昌443000 ） The Mid-long term Hydrologic Runoff Situation Analysis and Prediction System Researching of the Zagunao Cascade Hydropower Plant Wu Chengming, Wang Tingle,Yao Weiwei, Dong Wenjing (College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy of China Three Gorges University,Yi Chang Hu Bei,443000) 摘 要：中长期水文预报作为水电站经济运行的重要基础，开展杂谷脑流域的中长期水文 预报，对于实现该流域梯级水电站群的联合优化调度具有重要意义，而且对四川电网的 安全与经济运行具有重要的作用。本文应用投影寻踪回归预测技术建立预报模型，并针 对传统的投影寻踪技术投影与寻踪这两个核心问题进行改进，利用遗传算法代替高斯-牛 顿进行投影方向优化、利用非线性 Hermite 多项式代替非参数方法估计岭函数。研究表明 改进的投影寻踪技术能够以较快速度收敛于模型全局最优解。研究成果为杂谷脑梯级水 电站中长期调度奠定了基础，也为其他流域中长期水文预报提供了借鉴。 关键字：梯级水电站；水文预报；投影寻踪；遗传算法 Abstract: As an important basis of the economical operation of hydropower station, mid-long term hydrological forecasting is significant to the cascades of Zagunao not only in the terms of achieving the target of the joint optimization scheduling, but also play a important role in the security and economic operation of the power grid of Sichuan province. In this paper, the model of hydrological forecasting which based on the Projection Pursuit forecasting techniques is used. Two core issues of the traditional forecasting techniques, projection and pursuit are improved. The Genetic Algorithms which insteads of the Gauss-Newton method is used to optimize the projection direction, and the nonlinear Hermite polynomials which takes the place of non-parametric method is used to estimate the ridge function. The study indicates that the improved Projection and Pursuit techniques can converge to the global optimization parameters. The research results provide foundation for the mid-long term hydrop