GDP与失业率之间的关系.pdfVIP

Analysing the terms of trade effect on GDP and employment in the presence of low real unit labour costs Xichuan (Mark) Zhang Stuart Gourley Franklin Soriano Australian Bureau of Statistics Outline !Background and motivation !Descriptive and business cycle analysis !VECM exploratory analysis !Remarks Australian Bureau of Statistics Background motivation Australian Bureau of Statistics Background motivation Australian Bureau of Statistics Descriptive analysis Australian Bureau of Statistics Descriptive analysis !The terms of trade effect, real gross domestic income (RDGI) and domestic final demand (DFD) ï Relative price change not directly reflected in volume measure of GDP ï Increased real purchasing power of the Australian economy ï Boost to real incomes ï Flow on to domestic demand Australian Bureau of Statistics Business cycle analysis Cross correlation with NFGDP !Employment is usually a lagging indicator of GDP. !RGDI and DFD are usually coincident indicator of GDP !These usual patterns seem distorted since 2004. Australian Bureau of Statistics Business cycle analysis Australian Bureau of Statistics Aims and VECM approach !Better understand the relationship between GDP, employment, the terms of trade and labour costs effect of terms of trade shocks? role played by historically low