中国人口老龄化和碳排放的关系基于因素分解和动态面板的实证分析.pdfVIP

山西财 经大 学 学报 2012 年1 月 Joumal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University Jan. ，2012 第34 卷 第1期 Vol.34 No.1 国民经济管理 中国人口老龄化与碳排放的关系 ———基于因素分解和动态面板的实证分析 刘辉煌，李子豪 （湖南大学经济与贸易学院，湖南长沙410079） ［摘 要］利用中国1990～2008 年全国层面和 1995～2008 年省级层面的数据，分别采用LMDI 因素分解法和动态面板的 GMM 估计方法，对中国人口老龄化与碳排放之间的关系进行了考察。全国层面的因素分解结果表明，老龄化是中国近年来人均 碳排放增加的重要原因。动态面板模型的估计结果表明，老龄化与碳排放之间存在显著的倒U 型曲线关系。对老龄化不同影响 渠道的研究则表明，当前老龄化主要是通过生产渠道对碳排放的增加产生促进作用，而消费渠道的影响很不明显。 ［关键词］人口老龄化；碳排放；因素分解；GMM估计 ［中图分类号］F015 ［文献标识码］A ［文章编号］1007- 9556（2012）01- 0001- 08 The Relationship between Chinese Population Aging and CO2 Emission - - - - Empirical Analysis from Decomposition and Dynamic Panel Estimation LIU Hui- huang, LI Zi- hao （College of Economics and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha 410079, China） Abstract ：Based on the national data from 1990-2008 and provisional data from 1995-2008, through the method of LMDI de－ composition and dynamic panel data analysis, the authors investigate the relationship between the aging of Chinese population and carbon dioxide emission. The decomposition results show that, the aging of population is one of main factors which contribute to the increase of Chinese carbon dioxide emission. The results from the dynamic panel estimation show that, there is a significant inverse U relationship between aging level and carbon emission intensity. By means of the researches on different influence channels, the authors find that the production is the principal affecting channel of aging, and the effect of consumption channel is faint. Key Words ：population aging; carbon dioxide emission; decomposition; GMM estimation 一、引言