从不同时间尺度来探讨东亚季风稳定与变动的特性.pdfVIP

从不同时间尺度来探讨东亚季风 稳定与变动的特性 1 2 张自银 ， 周秉根 （1.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所，甘肃 兰州 730000； 2．安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院，安徽 芜湖 241000） [摘要] 东亚季风是构成我国气候系统的重要部分，其变化也是引起我国气候灾害发生 的主要因素。东亚季风系统自形成至今是在处于不断变化之中的，今天在全球变暖的大背景 下，东亚季风更是有着敏感的变化，而如何准确认识东亚季风的变化及其对我们的可能影响， 这就需要我们对东亚季风的形成、演化历史及规律要有一个全面而准确的认识，这是一个十 分繁重而艰巨的任务。本文通过对大量研究成果的总结以及对各种资料的再分析，重建东亚 季风的形成演化历程及各阶段的主要影响因子，是从不同的时间尺度来评价东亚季风变化， 浅谈了一些拙见，以期引起更多学者能从不同的角度、不同的视野来更加准确、科学地认识 东亚季风及全球气候系统的变化。 [关键词] 东亚季风 气候变化 不同时间尺度 To discuss the stabilization and change of East Asian monsoon from different time scales Abstract: The East Asian monsoon is an important part of our country climate system, and its variabilities are the main factors of our country climate disasters. The East Asian monsoon system has been on changing progress from its onset. Under the whole background of global warming, the East Asian monsoon will be more sensitive change today. However, how to understand its change and the possible impact on our society? It needs an all-round and exact cognition about the histories and orders of the East Asian monsoon’s origin and evolvement. This is a very heavy and hard work. Here, depending on the summing-up of lots of research achievements and re-analysis of various dates, we reconstruct the origin and evolvement progesses and their main effect factors of the East Asian monsoon. This paper estimates the East Asian monsoon from different time scales, and conclude some basic thoughts. The original intention of this paper is that it can arouse more researchers to pay more attention in the different perspectives and