应用趋势面模型分析传染性疾病的地理分布趋势.pdfVIP

疾病控制杂志 2005 年 4 月第 9 卷第 2 期 1·31 · 应用趋势面模型分析传染性疾病的地理分布趋势 1 2 1 3 裘炯良 , 王旭波 , 郑剑宁 , 孙智夫 【摘要】　目的 　应用趋势面模型分析传染性疾病的地理分布趋势。方法 　以多元回归分析理论 为基础 ,构造趋势面回归数学模型 ,并依据模型方程绘制趋势面层次分析图。结果 　获得对传染 性疾病地理分布进行监测的定量方法。结论 　该方法可用于分析疾病地理分布系统和局部变异 情况 ,并可直观地表示不同地理位置疾病严重程度的变化状况 ,可作为探讨传染性疾病地理流行 病学发病机制的有效工具。 【关键词】　模型 ,理论 ; 传染病 ; 地理学 【中图分类号】R195 ; R511 　　【文献标识码】A 　　【文章编号(2005) 1 Analysis of geographical distribution of contagious diseases by trendsurface model 　Q IU Jiongliang , 2 1 3 WAN G Xubo , ZHEN G Jianning , SUN Zhifu . 　1. Departnent of Health and Quarantine , Ningbo Ent ryExit Inspection and Quarantine B ureau , Ningbo 　315012 , China ; 2 . Institute of Medicine, L ishui Norm al School , L ishui 　323000 , China ; 3. Center f or Disease Cont rol and Prevention of Daishan , Daishan 　316200 , China 【Abstract 】　Objective 　 To explore the application of the trendsurface model on geographical distribution of contagious diseases. Methods 　The trendsurface regressional model was based on multiple regression. Then trendsurface diagram was drawed according to the mathematical model. Results 　The quantitative method for monitoring geographical distribution of contagious diseases was obtained. Conclusions 　 This method can be used for analyzing the geographical distribution of contagious diseases and demonstrating the variational trend of prevalence rate. It is a useful tool for