Ch4 Modern Trade Theory国际贸易.pptVIP

Chapter 4 Modern Trade Theories(Post-Heckscher-Ohlin Theories of Trade Intra-industry Trade) ?The Product Cycle Theory ?The Linder Theory ? Intra-Industry Trade Theory §1 The Product Cycle Theory I. The Imitation Lag Hypothesis Michael V. Posnel, 1961 Imitation Lag: Technology transmission lag, 15 months Demand Lag: e.g. 4 months Net lag: 11 months (Country I will export.) demand lag net lag （4 months） （11 months） imitation lag II. The Product Cycle Theory (PCT) Raymond Vernon, 1966 Begins with development of a new product in the United States Two principal characteristics: (a) Cater to high-income demands (US: high-income country) (b) Production process: labor-saving and capital-using in nature. （US: be regarded as a labor-scarce country） Life cycle: three stages 1. New product stage produced and consumed only in the USA (demand located) product and production process in a state of change no international trade 2. Maturing product stage some general standards begin to emerge mass production techniques started to be adopted economies of scale started to be realized (contrasts with H-O and Ricardo--- constant returns to scale) foreign demand (high-income countries) Assessing: producing abroad? If favorable, yes! (production cost abroad production at home + transportation cost) Fall in U.S. exports (capital and management mobile!) Product might flow from Western Europe to the USA (cheaper prices because of cheaper labor) 3. Standardized product stage product process well-known may shift to developing countries developed countries produce other products Trade pattern: the USA imports the product from other developing countries. Postulates a Dynamic comparative advantage The country source of exports shifts throughout the life cycle of the product. (Early on, then