Lowry Model课件.pptVIP

Lowry Model Pam Perlich URBPL 5/6020 University of Utah Reading / Model “Urban Form: The Lowry Model of Population Distribution” Chapter 7 from: Modeling the World in a Spreadsheet, Timothy Cartwright, John Hopkins University Press, 1993. Ereserve: Gravity Models Planners need small area forecasts of population and employment Travel models require small area forecasts Transportation networks Distance Travel time Capacity Gravity models specify interactions between origins and destinations Gravity Model Basics Given a set of origins, destinations, and travel times, trips to destinations are Directly related to the size of the destinations (gravitational pull) Inversely related to travel time Gravity models are used to Analyze commuting and other travel patterns Determine optimal location for facilities and services Allocate regional projections to specific locations within the region Lowry Model 1960s – Ira Lowry Spatial interaction model Modeling innovations Sub-regional forecasts were generated to control to regional totals Employment, population, and transportation were combined in one model Many variations and extension have been subsequently developed Sectors in Lowry Model Basic or Export Sector Sell their goods and services to non-locals Exogenous (Determined outside the model) Non-basic or Residentiary or Retail Sector Sell their goods and services to locals Includes government – schools, etc. Endogenous (Determined by the model) Household Sector Size and residential location are endogenously determined Specification of the Model Basic is given (exogenous) Forecast is derived from regional projections Retail sector Size and location are determined by size and location of the population Household sector Size is determined by employment opportunities (including basic and nonbasic) Location is determined by accessibility, particularly to employment Model Logic Model Inputs Basic jobs by zone Transportation network: travel times between every pair of