离散选择高阶段Logit模型的建模与预测--以上海城市外围大型居住社区为例.pdfVIP

Computer Engineering and Applications 计算机工程与应用 2015 ，51（13） 1 ⦾博士论坛⦾ 离散选择高阶段Logit 模型的建模与预测 ——以上海城市外围大型居住社区为例 1，2 1 关金平 ，杨东援 GUAN Jinping1，2 , YANG Dongyuan1 1.同济大学 交通运输工程学院 道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海 200092 2.美国加州大学伯克利分校 土木与环境工程系 交通研究中心，美国 1.The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China 2.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institution of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, USA GUAN Jinping, YANG Dongyuan. Advanced discrete choice Logit models and estimation and forecast: Case in large scale residential area on Shanghai city periphery. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2015, 51 （13）：1-8. Abstract ：The series of discrete choice Logit models, from basic to advanced are: binominal, multinomial, nested, cross nested, mixed Logit model, latent class model and hybrid choice model with latent variables and dynamic Logit model. Developing and using advanced Logit models is the latest key technique when the residents ’mode choice is studied in the rapid urbanization process. As a professor at University of California, Berkeley, Daniel L McFadden contributes to the dis- crete choice theory and method and won the Nobel Economic Prize in 2000. From year 2012 to 2014, the author worked with Joan Walker and Kenneth Train seized the opportunity of learning the series of Logit models in-depth. With theory applying to practice, this paper presents the advanced Logit models and the results in the case of the large scale residential area on Shanghai city periphery in the period of Chinese “the Twelfth Five-Year Plan ”and the process of rapid urbanization. With the data from the residents in the large scale residential area on Shanghai city periphery, an advanced Logit mode choice model ’s estimati