Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Children.ppt

* Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Children in West and Central Africaby John Cockburn, Isma?l Fofana and Luca Tiberti Policy Forum on Child Friendly Budgets for 2010 and beyond: toward global economic recovery with a human face? New York, 18-19 February 2010 ? Presented by Luca Tiberti Leonardo Menchini ltiberti@ lmenchini@ UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre Objective: Predict ex-ante the child welfare impacts of the global crisis and various policy responses in Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Ghana Rationale: Data for understanding the impact of the crisis on children are not timely available ? development of a predictive model simulating the impacts of the crisis on different dimensions of child well-being Tools of analysis: Integrated macro-micro simulation model Objective, rationale and tools Export prices/demand Import prices World economy Household Remittances FDI Foreign aid Input prices Consumer prices National economy (CGE model) Transferts privés Producer prices Child welfare: consumption, hunger, schooling, labor, health Employment Impacts (world economy) Export prices/demand Import prices FDI Foreign aid Remittances Channels to households Consumer prices Producer prices Input prices Employment Remittances Child welfare Consumption (monetary) Hunger (caloric intake) School participation Child labor Access to health services POLICY RESPONSES Transmission channels of the global economic crisis to children Macro impacts: CGE model capturing main channels of impact of the global crisis on the national economy, notably prices, wages and employment Child welfare impacts: Monetary poverty: total household income/consumption changes based on variations in prices, wages, employment and remittances Caloric poverty: Cobb-Douglas adjustments in consumption structure + nutritional tables School/child labor participation: econometric estimation: f(real income) Health access and choice of supplier: econometric estimation: