我国农业FDI与农产品国际贸易的动态关系研究.pdf

, Journal ofAn uiAgr.i Sci. 2009, 37( 20): 9709- 9712 汪洁 况玲玲 FD I 费 平, 徐立青 (, 214122) 以 1984~ 2006年的时间序列数据为基础, 采用农产品出口(EX ) 农产品进口(IM ) 总贸易额(TE I )和外 直接投资( FD I ) 为变 量, 利用 Eviews5. 0软件, 运用协整分析和VAR模型对农业 FDI与农产品国际贸易额变量之间的动态关系进行实证分析, 结果显示: 农 业FDI与我国农产品进出口增长存在长期的协整关系, 但在短期内可能发生FDI对进口的替代而偏离长期均衡关系的现象因此笔者 针对农业 FDI对农产品出口额具有促进作用, 提出了完善市场体系和加强对外资企业的进口管理两项政策建议, 以缓解我国农产品进 口压力 外 直接投资; 农产品; 国际贸易 F746. 2 A 0517- 6611( 2009) 20- 09709- 04 R esea rch on D ynam ic R elationsh ip betw een A g ricultural F oreign D irect Investm en t and Interna tional Trade of A gricultural Products FE I P ing et al ( Sc ool of Food Science and Tec nology, Jiangnan University, W ux,i Jiangsu 214122) A bstract Took export and mi port of agricultural products, total trade and foreign direct investment as variables, and Eview s5. 0 was used to m ake an emp irical analysis on dynam ic relations ip between agricultural foreign direct investment and international trade volume of agricultural productsw it t e tmi e series data from 1984 to 2006 by cointegration analysis andVARm odel. T e results s owed t at agriculturalFDI ad extended co- integration relations ipw it t e grow t of agricu ltural products mi port and export, but in t e s ort tmi e, it probab ly occurred t at FDI ad substituted for mi port and departure to t e longrun equilibrium relations ip. Finally, because agriculturalFDI ad promotion to t e export am ount of agricultural product, wt o policy suggestionswere put forward on mi provedmarket system and strengt ened t e mi portm anage m ent to foreign companies in order to alleviate t e pressure in mi port of agricultural products. K ey w ords Foreign direct investment; Agricultural products; International trade , , 1 1 ( Foreign D irect Investmen,t FD I)20 , 90,, , 1995 95. 6% , , FDI ( FAO)WTO , 2006 6