《Economic Growth Demographic Change and RuralUrban Migration in China》.pdfVIP

Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2013, 12(10): 1884-1895 October 2013 RESEARCH ARTICLE Economic Growth, Demographic Change and Rural-Urban Migration in China 1 1 2 1 ZHONG Fu-ning , LI Qing , XIANG Jing and ZHU Jing 1 Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, P.R.China 2 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, P.R.China Abstract Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades? This paper tries to answer this question by: 1) arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side; 2) focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration; and 3) analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey. Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure. Key words: demographic dividend, rural-urban migration, economic growth, China Chinese labor market (Cai 2004, 2010; Ryoshi and Ma INTRODUCTION 2009). So the focus has been targeting demand side of the economy. The policy focusing on demand in order China has experienced fast economic growth for more to boost economy seems quite effective, as evidenced than three decades, which is generally attributed to the by the positive outcome of 4 trillion CNY investment reform and openness started in the late 1970s. The plan in combating the 2008 world economic crisis. new leadership has recently announced an ambitious