2016-12-10_瑞士信贷_China Oil and Gas Sector：Auld Lang Syne.pdfVIP

10 December 2012 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Energy / Oil Gas China Oil and Gas Sector Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW David Hewitt 65 6212 3064 david.hewitt@ Auld Lang Syne Horace Tse 852 2101 7379 Figure 1: Chinese Oils and Brent—2012 performance horace.tse@ Jan-12 100 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 PetroChina Sinopec CNOOC COSL Brent Source: Datastream In this report, we look back at the China Energy space in 2012 and look ahead at 2013. ■ Sinopec: Rueing the regulator in 2012; 2013 will be better. Hope ran high as we entered 2012 that a ‘new’ refining mechanism was just around the corner. In reality, however, refiners suffered in 1H12. But they largely caught up in 2H12, despite the ongoing crude price strength. We expect 2013 to reflect 2H 12 refining, with a modest chemical uptick to beat 2012 already priced in . ■ CNOOC: MA dominated in 2012, execution will be 2013 focus. CNOOC turned around production in 2012, but all eyes are on the Nexen deal, which we see as fairly priced and value/skills accretive. As we enter 2013, the focus turns to ongoing organic growth and execution of Nexen integration. ■ PetroChina: Painful pace of gas price reform. 2012 started so well—the first week saw the new gas price trial linking to crude derivatives, but the roll- out has been slower than anticipated. We continue to believe in the long- term direction of crude price linkage but think consensus 2013 expectations are already setting a high bar for PetroChina to meet, never mind exceed. ■ COSL: Earnings solid as a rock—15% EPS growth with earnings upside. In 2013 we shall see COSL’s two new semi-subs contributing to the top line right from the start. The key question is when and how COSL utilises its US$1 bn notes issuance only c.US$150 mn used up