China Auto Industry outlook.pdfVIP

China Auto Industry Outlook: What Factors Will Affect Sales and Production Go East: Vehicle Sales Shifting 50 BRICs 45 Mature Markets s n o i 40 l l i m 35 n i s 30 e l a S 25 e l c Change 2011-2019: i 20 h e BRICs +69%, CAGR 6.8% V t 15 Mature +18%, CAGR 2.0% h g i L 10 l a u n 5 n A 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Note: Mature US, Canada, W Europe, Japan BRICs Brazil, Russia, India, China Source: IHS Data Insights 9/24/2012 IHS Day APAC Summit @Beijing. ?Copyright 2012 . All rights reserved. 2 China Has Led Worldwide Growth 2.4 ASEAN C Europe E Europe Greater China GC s 2.2 e India Japan/Korea t a 2.0 N America S America R g W Europe n i 1.8 Lehman Bros l 1 l IN e 7 Collapse S 0 1.6 d 0 e 2 2007 t AS s d 1.4 u e Sales Level j d x SA A e 1.2 d y n l I l EE a 1.0 n JK o WE s 0.8 a NA e S 0.6 CE 0.4 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 n n v r p b l c y t r g n n c a u o p e e u e a c a u a u e J J J N A S F D M O M A J J D Source: IHS Automotive Analysis 9/24/2012 IHS Day APAC Summit @Beijing. ?Copyright 2012 . All rights reserved. 3 Vehicle Penetration Still Low in China 900 US 800 e Australia l 700 p Italy Canada o e Slovenia France P 0 600 Poland Spain UK 0 0 Czech Rep Japan Sweden 1 500 r Germany e P e 400 Hungary s S Korea U n 300 I Russia s Mexico Taiwan Linear Trend: Each $1000 increase e l 200 in wealth leads to 15 more vehicles c Thailand i Chile h e Turkey per 1000 people. V 100 Brazil 0 $0 China $10 $20 $30 $40 India GDP Per Capita in thousand 2005 US$ Source: CY2010 Data, IHS Data Insight