应用小波分析进行短期负荷预测顾洁.pdfVIP

15 2 Vol. 15 No. 2 2003 4 Proceedings of the EPSA Apr. 2003 1 200240 APPLICATION OF WAVELET ANALYSIS TO SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING OF POWER SYSTEM Gu Jie Electrical Engineering Department of Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, 200240 ABSTRACTWavelet s analysis is a ne mathematical tool hich can abstract the details of the short-term loading se- . - . ries at ill T he short term loading series in any scale In this ay, the results of the short -term loading forecast , , could be more accurate than the forecast results ithout , using Wavelets analysis. T his paper introduces the Wavelets analysis into the short-term load forecast, and compares the forecasting results directly using Periodical , - auto regression PAR model ith the results using Wavelets analysis before forecasting ith PAR model. At 90 the same time, A c6 program is also compiled to do a - . , short term loading forecast ith Wavelets analysis Key Words Po er system , Wavelets analysis, short- term load forecasting, Periodical auto-re- CT gression PAR model , , , , , , , , , , , , , PAR , , 1 1. 1 PAR mother avelet 7 t , , , , , : 1 , , , ; 2 , , , 2 7 L I R , ; 3 1 2002 7 10 2002 9 26 2003 2 41 1 , 7 L 2 IR Vk - 1 ^ 2 Vk Y W k - 2 Y W k - 1 9 C7 X ?7 X ?dX 1 Vk , L 2 IR 7 X 7 Fourier U t , U0, n t :n Z V0 Riesz , : Vk , U t 7 t dt 0 2 Vk + 1 Wk , Vk , Vk ,f k f Vk , [ 1] 7 a, b t f , : - 1/ 2 : 7 a, b t ?a? 7 t - b / a ;b R ,a R - 0 3 2 7 t 3 Ck , n 6 al- 2n Ck + 1, l 10 l a, b 7 3 a dk , n 6 bl- 2n Ck + 1, l 11 l , : Ck + 1, n 6 p n- 2l Ck , l + qn- 2ldk , l ; 12 l , 3 k , C,d : , , h dN - 1h d N - 2h h dN - M CN CN - 1CN - 2 CN - M 1. 2 : , a dN - M g d N - M + 1g dN - 1g , b a0 1, b0 0, CN - M CN - M + 1CN - 1CN - m / 2 m m 7 m, n t a0 7 t - nb0a0 / a0 - m / 2 - m t , , a0 7 a0 - nb0 4 m,n Z 7 ,a0, b0 [ 1] Daubechies [ 1] , f , - 1 a0 2 b0 1, 2 L 2 IR Ries