《solar generation prediction using the ARMA model in a lab level micro grid》.pdfVIP

IEEE SmartGridComm 2012 Symposium - Support for Storage, Renewable Sources, and MicroGrid Solar Generation Prediction using the ARMA Model in a Laboratory-level Micro-grid Rui Huang, Tiana Huang, Rajit Gadh Smart Grid Energy Research Center, Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, USA Na Li Control and Dynamical Systems, California Institute of Technology, USA Abstract—The goal of this article is to investigate and research solar generation forecasting in a laboratory-level micro-grid, using the UCLA Smart Grid Energy Research Center (SMERC) as the test platform. The article presents an overview of the existing solar forecasting models and provides an evaluation of various solar forecasting providers. The auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model and the persistence model are used to predict the future solar generation within the vicinity of UCLA. In the forecasting procedures, the historical solar radiation data originates from SolarAnywhere. System Advisor Model (SAM) is applied to obtain the historical solar generation data, with inputting the data from SolarAnywhere. In order to validate the solar forecasting models, simulations in the System Identification Figure 1. The laboratory-level micro-grid with solar PV panels, battery Toolbox, Matlab platform are performed. The forecasting results storage units and lab loads for the UCLA SMERC with error analysis indicate that the ARMA model excels at short and medium term solar forecasting, whereas the persistence model performs well only under very short duration. to obtain accurate solar generation forecasting, which benefit