Bayesian Updating of Fragility Functions Using Hybrid Simulation教程.pdfVIP

Bayesian Updating of Fragility Functions Using Hybrid Simulation 1 2 3 Jian Li ; Billie F. Spencer Jr., F.ASCE ; and Amr S. Elnashai, F.ASCE Abstract: The accuracy of fragility functions is critical for regional risk and loss estimations. This paper proposes a two-stage approach to . generate improved fragility functions for engineering structures using field measurement and experimental data. In the first stage, the linear d e v and nonlinear parameters of the bridge model are calibrated using measured earthquake responses and cyclic testing data; analytical fragilities r e s are then generated with the calibrated model. In the second stage, a Bayesian updating approach is used to further update the derived fragilities e r s t using hybrid (analytical-experimental) simulation results. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, fragility functions are gen- h g i r erated for the Meloland Road Overcrossing Bridge considering four cases that represent an increasing level of data availability. A comparison of l l a ; the four sets of fragility functions shows that appropriate calibration of bridge model is critical to the accuracy of the fragilities. In addition, y l hybrid simulation provides an economic and efficient way of validating and improving the accuracy of fragility functions through Bayesian n o e updating. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0000685. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers. s u l a n CE Database subject headings: Highway bridges; Calibration; Hybrid methods; Cyclic loads; Bay