中国通货膨胀的货币因素分析——2002-2008年间中国货币供应量变化和物价指数CPI+变动关系的实证研究.pdf

得出的结论为在2002 年1 月到2008 年4 月期间M0、M2 与通货 膨胀之间的同比增长率不存在格兰杰因果关系，而M1 与通货膨胀的 同比增长率则存在格兰杰因果关系。之所以M1 同比增长率与通货膨 胀同比增长率存在这种因果关系，笔者认为M1 是流动性最强的金融 资产同时又可以看作是处于流动中的货币量，与物价水平的变化关系 最密切。而M0 是流通中的现金，虽然流动性很强，但在现今比较发 达的支付体系中只是流通货币量的一部分，与物价直接关系不大。而 M2 不存在这种因果关系，可能因为它作为货币总量的概念，虽然对 通货膨胀的长期影响是必然存在的，但流动性相对较低对价格水平的 直接作用在这六年多的时间内不是很明显。 同时在2002 年1 月到2008 年４月期间货币供应M1 增长对通货 膨胀变动单向性表明它对于通货膨胀来讲是具有外生性的。但是由于 对中国相关研究表明，相对于经济总量的增长，货币供应量是具有内 生性特性的，经济产出增长必然伴随着货币的增长。这种相对于通货 膨胀的外生性和对产出的内生性特点，使得货币供应的控制本身成为 一件非常复杂的事情，在协调促进经济增长和保持币值稳定双目标的 货币政策最终目标上可能存在内在的矛盾性。 关键词：通货膨胀 消费者物价指数 货币供应 广义货币 Abstract Starting from studying the monetary factor of inflation in China, and on the purpose to discuss the causal relation between money supply and inflation, this thesis specifically analyzes the relation between inflation and money supply during 2002.01 to 2008.04 and draws the conclusion that M1 Granger causes inflation during the period. Concerning the structure for this thesis, first of all, it iterates the core issues of inflation such as its definition, measurements, and main theoretical explanations as well as the common strategies to cope with inflation. Meanwhile, it also introduces the key concepts of money supply including base money, money multiplier and the different category of money together with money ’s exogenousness and endogenosness. Afterwards, the money supply and the situation of inflation during 2002.01-2008.04 are fully described with figures and graphs concerned. The details include base money, money multiplier, M0, M1 and M2 plus the inflation during the period as well as its characteristics. With the theoretical description and actual data above, the thesis applies the substantive method, specifically Johansen test and Granger causal test to find out the substantive relation between the inflation rate and M0, M1 and M2 rates respectively. The conclusion is that there is no Granger causal relation