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Refinery planning under correlated and truncated price and demand uncertainties》.pdf
16th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering
and 9th International Symposium on Process Systems Engineering
W. Marquardt, C. Pantelides (Editors) 212 3
© 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Refinery Planning under Correlated and Truncated
Price and Demand Uncertainties
Wenkai Li , I.A . Karimi , * R . Srinivasan
Department of chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, National University of
Singapore, 4 Engineering Drive 4, Singapore 117576
Abstract
Because of the difficulty in computing the bivariate integral originated from the
correlated demand and price, most research work on uncertainty assumes that the
demand and price are independent. This can cause significant discrepancies in revenue
calculation and hence yield sub-optimal planning strategies. This paper presents a novel
approach to handle correlated and truncated demand and price uncertainties. A bivariate
normal distribution is used to describe demand and price. The double integral for
revenue calculation is reduced to several single integrals after detailed derivation. The
unintegrable standard normal cumulative distribution fimction in the single integrals is
approximated by polynomial ftinctions. Case studies show that, assuming independent
price and demand may underestimate the revenue by up to 20% . Since the real world
demands or prices vary in limited ranges, integrating over the whole range of a normal
distribution, which some research has done, may give incorrect results. This paper uses
a bivariate double-truncated normal distribution to describe demand and price. The
influence of different degrees of truncation on plant revenue is studied.
Keywords: Refinery, Planning, Uncertainty, Correlation, Truncation
1. Revenu e calcu
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