《Is the Internal Market Able to Accommodate the Strong Growth Projected for Brazilian Aquaculture？.》.pdf

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《Is the Internal Market Able to Accommodate the Strong Growth Projected for Brazilian Aquaculture？.》.pdf

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JournalofAgriculturalScienceandTechnologyB4(2014)407-417 Earliertitle：JournalofAgriculturalScienceandTechnology，ISSN 1939-l250 … N6 IStheInternalMarketAbletoAccommodatetheStrong GrowthProjectedforBrazilianAquaculture? RobertoM anolioVallad~oFloresandManoelXavierPedrozaFilho EmbrapaFisheriesandAquaculture,Palmas77020-020,Brazil Received：October30，2013／Published：May20，2014 Abstract：TheBrazilian aquacultureindustryhas shown astrong productiongrowth inrecentyears．Regarding consumption， analystsbelieveinapotentialexpansionofdomesticdemandforfishinBrazilduetocurrentlow percapitaconsumptionanda growingdeficitoftradebalance．Thispaperintendstoinvestigatewhetherthereisdomesticdemandtoabsorbtheincreasedsupply providedbythegrowth ofaquacultureproductionin Brazil．The investigationconsistedinanalyzetherelationshipbetweenthe domesticconsumption．thepopulationincomeandthefishprice，andanalyzedthebehaviorofthisconsumptionduetotheincrease ofproduction．usingannua1timeseriesfrom 1995to2009．Econometricmethodsoftimeseriesshowedthatcouldnotbesaidthat therew．11bebalanceinthefishmarket． Keywords：Aquaculture，consumption，vectorautoregressive，elasticityofdemand． 1．Intr0ductiOn demand for thisprotein．Thisoccursbecause the catching fish sector，though itisstillapproximately AccordingtoestimatesoftheFoodandAgriculture 59％ oftota1fisheriesproduction，and ithasshown OrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)，theworld stability inproductioninrecentyearswith around90 population willincrease from the current7billion milliontonsannual(Table1、． peopleto 8．3billion in 2030and9．1billionin205