多元线性回归在房地产中的应用_论文.doc

多元线性回归分析在房地产中的应用 摘 要 近年来在国家促进中部崛起的政策的支持下，河南省经济近年来取得了快速的发展，经济的增长推动了房地产的完善和繁荣，然而居高不下的房价对人民的生活产生了重要的影响，也引发了社会的强烈关注。 首先本文初步对影响商品房价格的主要因素做定性分析，在定性分析的基础上并以河南省为背景选取几个具有代表性的指标，采用多元线性回归的方法探求这些指标与商品房价格的线性关系。 通过回归方程的显著性检验、残差分析最后建立了商品房价格与河南省GDP、河南省城镇化率的线性回归模型，得到结论：在长期中河南省商品房价格与河南省GDP，河南省城镇化同方向变化，并且可以预测在河南省经济不断发展的趋势下，河南省商品房价格依然会有所上涨。最后结合本文的研究内容给出了保证河南省商品房健康发展的政策建议。 关键词: 商品房价格，多元线性回归，显著性检验，残差分析 APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN THE REAL ESTATE ABSTRACT In recent years in countries to promote the support of the policies of central China, Henan Province in recent years rapid development, economic growth has promoted the improvement and prosperity of the real estate, but the high prices on the lives of people also led to the strong concern of the society. Firstly, qualitative analysis of a variety of factors that affect real estate prices, and then to identify important quantitative factors by multiple linear regression analysis to explain the relationship and impact of these factors and real estate prices. First, multiple linear regression the significance of applied research in the real estate and research status of a brief introduction. Second, multiple linear regression model and the steps to do a brief introduction, and the significance test of the theory and residual analysis theory. Third, qualitative analysis of the impact of factors that affect real estate prices, the establishment of commercial housing priceMultiple linear regression equations, the interpretation and analysis of influencing factors on the real estate according to the final regression equation. KEYWORDS: real estate prices, multiple linear regression, the significance test, and residual analysis 目 录 APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN THE REAL ESTATE II 前 言 1 一、问题的背景和研究意义 1 二、国内外关于商品房价格的研究现状 3 第一章 研究方法的理论基础 5 §1.1 多元线性回归模型 6 §1.2 多元线性回归模型的求解 6 §1.3 回归方程的显著性检验检验 8 §1.3.1 F检验 8 §1.3.2 T检验 9 §1.3.3 拟合优度检验 10 §1.4 残差分析 10 第二章 影响商品房价格的因素 11