RelationshipsBetweenEyeSizeandIntensityChangesofa.pptVIP

Relationships Between Eye Size and Intensity Changes of a N. Atlantic Hurricane Author: Stephen A. Kearney Mentor: Dr. Matthew Eastin, Central College Introduction Two primary components to hurricane forecasting: - Track - Intensity Current research on structure and intensity Knowledge gained about storm structure with flight level data (e.g., Jorgensen, 1984) Do relationships exist between eye size and intensity? Previous studies (e.g., Weatherford and Gray 1988) show weak correlation between eye size and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) Introduction/Hypothesis Temporal changes associated with eye wall replacement cycles also noted (Willoughby et al. 1990; Willoughby et al. 1982; Black et al. 1992) Generally, smaller eye sizes coincident with greater intensity Project investigates impact of eye diameter asymmetries on intensity changes Hypothesis: Eye sizes are characterized by changes in storm intensity Overview Procedures Investigations - Direct relationship - Intensity change with eye size change Effect of eye symmetry on storm intensity Procedure 88 total flights analyzed, only at hurricane strength Flights analyzed at 850 mb and 700 mb levels 14 various N. Atlantic hurricanes from 1979 through 1995 Included some notable storms: Gilbert, 1988; Andrew, 1992 Procedure Flights composed of several legs, or passes through eye RMW = Radius of Maximum Wind (Shea et al. 1973) - Value of eye size Two values for mean RMW RMW1 = Average of RMW from first four legs RMW2 = Average of RMW from last four legs Only flights with at least eight legs used Procedure Mean times found in same way as mean RMW. Labeled t1 and t2 , respectively Change in Mean RMW per second Procedure Calculated change in Maximum Wind (m/s) and change in MSLP (mb) Change values covered separate six-hour periods during and after each flight - Immediate or future impact? RMW Standard Deviation (RMW SD) found separately for RMW-1 and RMW-2 Investigations of RMW Direct relationship I