CSCI2610-DiscreteMathematics.ppt

* * * * * * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * January 10 2006 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * * * January 10 2006 * * January 10 2006 * * * * * January 10 2006 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * January 10 2006 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Repeated trials If there are a number of trials being conducted, each of which has a probability of success of p and a probability of failure of q = 1 – p, then the probability of exactly k successes in n independent trials is C(n,k)pkqn-k This is called the binomial distribution. * Bayes’ Theorem Consider the following problem: There are two boxes holding red and green balls. Box 1 contains 2G, 7R. Box 2 contains 4G, 3R. A ball is selected by choosing a box at random, then choosing a bal at random from that box. If a red ball is selected, what is the probability it cam from the first box? * Bayes’ Theorem Let E be “a red ball is chosen” So E is “a green ball is chosen” Let F be “a ball is chosen from box 1” So F is “a ball is chosen from box 2” We want to know p(F|E). * Bayes’ Theorem By conditional prob, p(F|E) = p(F?E)/p(E). We know p(E|F) = 7/9 and p(E|F) = 3/7 We know p(F) = p(F) = 1/2 By conditional prob, p(E|F) = p(E?F)/p(F) So, p(E?F) = p(E|F)p(F) = (7/9)(1/2) = 7/18 By the same logic, p(E?F) = p(E|F)p(F) = 3/14 Since p(E) = p(E?F) + p(E?F), p(E) = 38/63. p(F|E) = p(F?E)/p(E) = (7/18)(63/38) = 49/76?64.5% * Bayes’ Theorem Given events E and F such that p(E) ? 0, p(F) ? 0, p(F|E) = p(E|F)p(F) p(E|F)p(F) + p(E|F)p(F) This is the equation resulting from the reasoning we just went through. It provides a means for calculating conditional