《Dr. Alexia Nalewaik FRICS CCP CCA》.pdfVIP

Dr. Alexia Nalewaik FRICS CCP CCA November 2015  Framing the project success ‘problem’  Risk assessment and management  Types of risk  Auditing risk  Questions and Answers  Projects are often unique, complex, complicated, dynamic  Projects rely on people  Change is a constant  Different stakeholders have different definitions of success  Risk exists  There are many variables in projects and project management that are difficult to capture ◦ … especially the ‘people’ part  Risk: vulnerability to the possibility of loss, as a consequence of inherent uncertainty when undertaking an endeavor or course of action  “Risk is 1. A hazard, danger; exposure to mischance or peril. 2. The chance or hazard of commercial loss. 3. An allowance made to cover accidental deficits.” (OED, 2015)  “Something bad could happen” (Hubbard, 2009)  Multi-faceted  Inter-dependent  Constantly changing  Any action has more than one possible outcome and impact  Any action may affect existing risks or generate subsequent risks  Risks may be project-specific, or related to the organization  Risk can be objective or subjective  Risks can be unknown, then become known ◦ Black swans can become grey swans  Risk requires professional judgment regarding severity and consequence ◦ … that’s the problem …  Risk quantification tends not to focus on extreme- impact statistically-unlikely events such as: ◦ war, terrorism, political instability, corruption, earthquake, tsunami, stock market crash ◦ extreme operational risks of the type discussed in Basel II (et seq.) ◦ space alien invasion, zombie apocalypse  Technical ◦ Internal ◦ Related to the design of the project, and the materials equipment needed to make that design a reality  Financial / Economic ◦ Internal and external ◦ Related to the