《2016美赛国际一等奖优秀论文》.pdf

Shooting Criminals in a ”Barrel” Summary It has long been recognized that there are important relationships between geography and the series of crimes. Geographical profiling is an investigative technique widely used to analyze the spatial pattern of a related series of crime locations in order to predict the location of criminal’s residence. This paper stud- ies the different schemes to estimate the location of the criminal’s residence and the technique to predict the possible locations of the next crime. Firstly, we develop criminal behavioral model and conditional probability model to generate the geographical profile respectively. In criminal spatial be- havioral model, we use a hit score function to estimate the location of criminal’s residence with taking the phenomenon of distance-decay and buffer zone into consideration. In conditional probability model, we use conditional probability density function instead of score function to estimate the location of criminal’s residence, thus we get the probability of an area being the criminal’s residence. Then we develop a technique combining the results of two models through the set theory and predicting the possible locations of the next crime mainly based on locations of past crime scenes. Most of the future crime prediction tech- niques existing are developed based on the assumption that all directions from the criminal’s residence have an equal opportunity to be chosen. In our future crime prediction technique, we take the attractive ability of the areas around the residence into consideration through the cluster analysis of the past crime sites. So the opportunity to be chosen in different directions will be different, which is more realistic in real world. According to validation and reliability analysis of the technique, we conclude that the technique is reliable and flexible. At last, we write an executive summar