采用灰色关联度与TOPSIS法的光伏发电项目风险评价研究.pdfVIP

37 卷 6 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 37 No. 6 20 13 年6 月 Power System Technology Jun. 2013 文章编号：1000-3673 （2013 ）06-1514-06 中图分类号：TK 51 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4047 采用灰色关联度与TOPSIS 法的 光伏发电项目风险评价研究 李彦斌，于心怡，王致杰 （华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Risk Assessment on Photovoltaic Power Generation Project by Grey Correlation Analysis and TOPSIS Method LI Yanbin, YU Xinyi, WANG Zhijie (School of Economy and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: Due to long construction cycle, massive 急剧加大，伴随项目而来的各种风险日益突出，因此 光伏 investment and many involved aspects of photovoltaic (PV) 发电项目进行有效的风险评价具有明确的现实意义。根据光 power generation, various uncertain factors and environmental 伏发电项目的典型特征,建立起更为全面的光伏发电项目风 factors, which both PV generation proj ect and proj ect manager 险评价指标体系，使用灰色关联度和逼近理想解的排序方法 have to be faced with, sharply increase and various risks going (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution ， with the item appear, so it is of great significance to perform TOPSIS)， 光伏项目的风险进行评价。结果表明，该方法 effective risk assessment on PV generation proj ect. According 是一种有效的风险评价方法。它既能 备选方案进行整体评 to typical features of PV generation proj ect, a more 判，又能反映备选方案内部各因素变化趋势与理想方案之间 comprehensive risk assessment index system is proposed, in 的区别，对于光伏发电项目的投资具有一定的指导作用。 which the grey correlation analysis and technique for order 关键词：光伏发电项目；风险评价；灰色关联度；TOPSIS preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is 方法 utilized to construct a grey ideal value approximation model, to 0 引言 assess the