时变概率模型下的电网调度操作过程风险评估.pdfVIP

37 卷 12 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 37 No. 12 20 13 年12 月 Power System Technology Dec. 2013 文章编号：1000-3673 （2013 ）12-3509-06 中图分类号：TM 721 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4051 时变概率模型下的电网调度操作过程风险评估 魏炜，王恩，刘哲 （天津大学电气与自动化工程学院，天津市 南开区 300072 ） Real-Time Probabilistic Model Based Risk Assessment of Dispatching Operations Process WEI Wei, WANG En, LIU Zhe (School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Nankai District, Tianjin 300072, China) ABSTRACT: As for electric power enterprises, dispatching 理，调度员发布的每条操作令都必须符合电网安全 operation is one of daily works, and reasonable dispatching 运行导则。但是在实际调度操作过程中，由于天气、 operation can ensure secure and stable operation of power grid 设备老化等不确定因素，常常使调度操作面临一定 effectively. However, due to such uncertain factors as weather 的风险，例如某些操作可能导致系统可靠性的降 and equipment ageing, the dispatching operation has to be [3-4] faced with a certain risk. So before transmitting scheduling 低，设备自身的缺陷也可能导致调度操作失败 。 instructions to lower levels, it is necessary to perform real-time 文献[5]对调度操作过程中可能出现的 险点进行 risk analysis on grid situation during dispatching operation 分析，提出了相应的管控措施。文献[6-9]分别对操 process to ensure that the post-operation risk of power grid lies 作票的智能生成、基于 EMS 的综合应用及操作自 within the controllable range. Leading the risk theory into the 动监护进行了研究，利用人工智能技术防止人为误 assessment on dispatching operation process and on the basis of considering such impacts of society, weather and equipment 操作。上述文献主要集中于对调度操作中可能存在 status, a frame and method to calculate the risk during 的逻辑错误进行分析，从而减小误操作事故发生