架空线路全寿命期成本估算.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着全寿命周期成本理论研究的不断发展，其应用领域从国防领域扩展到民用 和其他领域。我国电力系统由上海电力公司在 2004 引入全寿命周期成本管理，全寿 命周期成本估算和价值分析是电网资产全寿命周期成本管理的核心，对电网资产全 寿命周期成本估算理论和方法的研究有重要的现实意义。 论文首先介绍了全寿命周期成本的定义及其在国内外的应用情况，并对全寿命 周期成本理论和估算方法进行了较为系统全面的综述。 论文通过分解电网资产的产品结构、成本结构和寿命周期阶段，建立了电网资 产全寿命周期成本三维估算模型，并在分析架空线路的运行特点的基础上，建立了 架空线路全寿命周期成本估算模型。并将其应用到河北省电力公司固南Ⅰ线，对架 空线路全寿命周期成本模型中的成本要素进行累加，得到全寿命周期成本估算结果。 结果表明架空线路全寿命周期成本主要发生在运行维护阶段，而损耗成本是运行维 护成本的主要成本，架空线路的可靠性需要综合考虑获得成本和运行维护成本。 论文利用概率分析法，对架空线路全寿命周期成本的估算结果进行了不确定性 分析。利用 Crystal Ball 工具对架空线路全寿命周期成本估算过程进行了 Monte Carlo 仿真，得到架空线路全寿命周期成本仿真结果的概率分布和统计特征，对估算结果 的可靠性进行了评估。 文章的最后提出了有待进一步研究的问题。 关键词：全寿命周期成本估算 三维成本模型 不确定性分析 Monte Carlo 仿真 I Abstract With the development of theoretic studies in life cycle cost management, its application fields are extended from the military area to the civilian and other areas. The present power system in our state the concept of life cycle cost management was introduced by Shanghai Power Grid Company since 2004. The estimation and analysis for life cycle cost is the very core of life cycle cost management. Therefore, it is significant to study on the theories and methods of life cycle cost estimation of power grid assets. First, the paper elaborates on the concept and domestic and overseas research status and application of life cycle cost. Research status of life cycle cost estimation theory is elaborated in succession, and methods of estimation for life cycle cost are examined. With the breakdown of product structure, costs structure and life cycle for power grid assets, the paper establishes a three dimensional cost estimation model of life cycle cost. Based on the characteristics of overhead lines, the model used to estimate for life cycle cost of overhead lines is established, and is applied to Line