UHVDC系统故障树分析误差及灵敏度分析.pdfVIP

39 卷 5 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 39 No. 5 20 15 年5 月 Power System Technology May 2015 文章编号：1000-3673 （20 15）05-1233-07 中图分类号：TM 72 1 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4051 UHVDC 系统故障树分析误差及灵敏度分析 1 1 2 1 1 李生虎 ，华玉婷 ，陈鹏 ，马燕如 ，于丽萍 1．合肥工业大学 电气与自动化工程学院，安徽省 合肥市 230009； 2．国网智能电网研究院，北京市 昌平区 102200 ） FTA Error Analysis and Probabilistic Sensitivities of UHVDC Systems 1 1 2 1 1 LI Shenghu , HUA Yuting , CHEN Peng , MA Yanru , YU Liping (1. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, Anhui Province, China; 2. State Grid Smart Grid Research Institute, Changping District, Beijing 102200, China) ABSTRACT: Fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to evaluate the 确实较SS 法偏高，误差与元件个数及元件可用度有关。发 reliability and sensitivity of ultra high-voltage direct-current 现系统故障概率对同一元件修复率和安装率的绝对灵敏度 (UHVDC) system. Considering that some elements in both 之比，为其安装率和修复率之比的平方，同一元件所有参数 poles are expected to reserve for each other in the same station, 相对灵敏度之和为0，据此可大幅降低灵敏度分析计算量。 all kinds fault trees for different running models are built. To 关键词：特高压直流输电；故障树；误差分析；灵敏度分析； keep things simple, the reliability models of FTA and state 可靠性 space (SS) methods for series and parallel systems are analyzed DOI 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.05.010 initially. It is newly find that the error of FTA arises from falsely introducing fa