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an optimality theory for mid strongpstrong–values in
Statistica Sinica 11(2001), 807-826
AN OPTIMALITY THEORY FOR MID p–VALUES
IN 2 × 2 CONTINGENCY TABLES
J. T. Gene Hwang and Ming-Chung Yang
Cornell University and National Central University
Abstract: The contingency table arises in nearly every application of statistics.
However, even the basic problem of testing independence is not totally resolved.
More than thirty–five years ago, Lancaster (1961) proposed using the mid p–value
for testing independence in a contingency table. The mid p–value is defined as half
the conditional probability of the observed statistic plus the conditional probability
of more extreme values, given the marginal totals. Recently there seems to be
recognition that the mid p–value is quite an attractive procedure. It tends to be
less conservative than the p–value derived from Fisher’s exact test. However, the
procedure is considered to be somewhat ad–hoc.
In this paper we provide theory to justify mid p–values. We apply the Neyman–
Pearson fundamental lemma and the estimated truth approach, to derive optimal
procedures, named expected p –values. The estimated truth approach views p–values
as estimators of the truth function which is one or zero depending on whether the
null hypothesis holds or not. A decision theory approach is taken to compare the
p–values using risk functions. In the one–sided case, the expected p–value is exactly
the mid p–value. For the two–sided case, the expected p–value is a new procedure
that can be constructed numerically. In a contingency table of two independent
binomial samplings with balanced sample sizes, the expected p–value reduces to
a two–sided mid p–value. Furthe
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