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comparison of two common empirical methods to strongmodelstrong land-use.pdf

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comparison of two common empirical methods to strongmodelstrong land-use

International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Managing Resources of a Limited Planet, Sixth Biennial Meeting, Leipzig, Germany R. Seppelt, A.A. Voinov, S. Lange, D. Bankamp (Eds.) /society/index.php/iemss-2012-proceedings Comparison of Two Common Empirical Methods to Model Land-Use Choices in a Multi-Agent System Simulation of Landscape Transition: Implication for a Hybrid Approach 1 2 Quang Bao Le and Flávia F. Feitosa 1 Swiss Federal Institute of Technolog Zurich (ETH Zurich), Natural and Social Science Interface (NSSI), Switzerland (quang.le@env.ethz.ch) 2 Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil (flavia@dpi.inpe.br) Abstract: Land-use choice routines embedded in a human-environment system (HES) model must meet more requirements than those in models typically presented in purely economic or psychological studies. This study compares the strengths and shortcomings of two common empirical methods - multi-nominal logistic (MNL) regression and classification tree (CT) analysis – for specifying land- use choices in a multi-agent system simulation framework (Land Use Dynamics Simulator - LUDAS). First, we described design concepts of land-use decision- making mechanism in the LUDAS framework in which household’s land-use choice is a component. Next, we compared two common methods for modeling the land- use choice with respect to pre-estab