david stronglstrong. greene, janet stronglstrong. hopson, and jia li.pdfVIP

David L. Greene, Janet L. Hopson, and Jia Li A risk analysisis presentedof the peakingof world conventionaloil pro- (Figures1-7). The most recentestimatesby the U.S. Geological duction and the likely transition to unconventionaloil resourcessuchas Survey(USGS)appearto bean exceptionto thatrule,buttheappar- oil sands,heavyoil, and shaleoil. Estimatesof world oil resourcesby the entdisagreementis largelyattributableto achangeindefinitions(8). U.S. GeologicalSurvey (USGS)andC. J. Campbell provide alternative USGS2000estimatesinclude,for the fIrst time, anestimateof the views of ultimate world oil resources.A global energyscenariocreated potential for reservegrowth due to advancesin technologyand by the International Institute of Applied SystemsAnalysisand the World knowledge of deposits.The estimated600 billion barrels in this Energy Council providesthe contextfor the risk analysis.A modelof oil categoryaccountfor nearlyall thedifference betweentheUSGSs resourcedepletion and expansionfor 12world regionsiscombinedwith 1994and2000meanestimates(9). a market equilibrium modelof conventionaland unconventionaloil sup- Beforea peakin oil productionis reached,theworld mightbegin ply and demand.The modeldoesnot useHubbert curves. Key variables a transitionto an alternativesourceof energy,therebypermitting suchasthe quantity of undiscoveredoil and ratesof technologicalprogress energyuseto continueto grow.The mostlikely, but notonly, alter- are treated as probability distributions, rather than constants.Analyses nativesto conventionaloil are unconventionaloil and otherfossil basedon the USGSresource assessmentindicate that conventional oil hydrocarbonresourcesthatcanbeconvertedto conventionalliquid production outside the Middle East i