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2016-03-09 发布于山东
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GUEST Demographic and strongEconomic Trendsstrong Implications for.pdf

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GUEST Demographic and Economic Trends: Implications for EDITARTICLE Education and Industry A. Emerson Wiens Three hundred years ago, predicting the trends, and literature in which “world-watcher future was simple: Life 25 years from now will experts” in economics and certain industrial be the same as this year unless an epidemic fields made predictions. Only recent issues of strikes. In those days, a curriculum for educat- journals, periodic literature, and books were ing young people for the future was obvious. reviewed to obtain the most current data and Now that the rate of technological and social interpretations. (See Reference section for com- change is on the vertical stem of the J curve, plete bibliographic information.) anticipating the future has become essential Obviously, there are many more resources for business but increasingly difficult. Behind that focus on the future. Some writers develop this accelerated rate of change is the computer creative scenarios of underground cities, sky- that gets twice as smart every 18 months, a fact scrapers several miles high, a workless soci- that Paul Horn, senior vice president of re- ety, colonies on the moon, life on Mars, and search at IBM, predicts will c