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Is there a “heat or eat”trade-off in the UK?
IFS Working Paper 09/11
Timothy K.M. Beatty
Laura Blow
Thomas F. Crossley
Is There a Heat or Eat Trade-o in the UK?
Timothy K.M. Beatty Laura Blow
University of Minnesota Institute for Fiscal Stuides
Institute for Fiscal Studies
Thomas F. Crossley
Koc University
Institute for Fiscal Studies
University of Cambridge
Abstract
We merge detailed household level expenditure data from older households with historical local weather information.
We then test for a heat or eat trade o: do houseolds cut back on food spending to nance the additional cost of
keeping warm duing cold shocks? We nd evidence that the poorest of older households are unable to smooth spending
over the worst temperature shocks. Statistically signicant reductions in food spending are observed in response to
temperatures two or more standard deviations colder than expected (which occur about one winter month in forty)
and reductions in food expenditure are considerably larger in poorer households.
1
1 Introduction 2
1 Introduction
In recent winters, media outlets reported that unseasonable weather and rising energy costs forced elderly
households in the United Kingdom to choose between heating and eating.123 In other words, households
were said to be forgoing food to pay for the increased cost of staying warm. In this paper, we study the
empirical evidence for a heat or eat trade-o in the United Kingdom. We model temperature shocks
using historical regional weather data. We then merge estimated temperature shocks with UK household
expenditure data in order to study older households response to unus
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