The strongUstrong.S. Demographic Transition - University of Wisconsin.pdfVIP

The U.S. Demographic Transition By JEREMY GREENWOOD AND ANANTH SESHADRI* Picture the United States in 1800. The vast just 3.3 hours. Similarly, it took 344 hours to majority (94 percent) of the populace lived in produce 100 bushels of corn, and 601 hours to rural areas. The average white woman gave produce a bale of cotton in 1800. These times birth to seven children. Now, move forward to dropped to 7 and 26 hours by 1970. Fewer 1940. Only 43 percent of the population lived people were needed to feed the nation, given the in rural areas, and the average white woman relatively low income elasticity of agricultural birthed two children. Figure 1 illustrates the goods. Thus, while agriculture accounted for 85 demographic transition. percent of the labor force in 1810, only about 30 What was the force underlying this decline in percent of the population was employed in this fertility? The answer is technological progress. sector by 1910, and just a paltry 3 percent in Two factors are relevant here. First, between 1995. With economic progress, other sectors of 1800 and 1940 real wages grew sixfold. This the economy began to outpace agriculture. Ag- increased the time cost of children in terms of riculture’s share of output fell from 41 percent consumption goods. America was sparsely pop- in 1840 to 2 percent in 1997. ulated as it entered the 19th century, with just 4.5 people per square mile. Parts were “so thinly I. The Model scattered” that one writer advised immigrants that “no assistance worthy of notice can be The world is described by a two-