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Transmission Channels of Systemic Risk and Contagion in the
*
European Financial Network
†
Nikos Paltalidis , Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Renatas Kizys, Yiannis Koutelidakis
Journal of Banking and Finance, Forthcoming
Abstract
We investigate systemic risk and how financial contagion propagates within the euro area
banking system by employing the Maximum Entropy method. The study captures multiple
snapshots of a dynamic financial network and uses counterfactual simulations to propagate
shocks emerging from three sources of systemic risk : interbank, asset price, and sovereign
credit risk markets. As conditions deteriorate, these channels trigger severe direct and indirect
losses and cascades of defaults, whilst the dominance of the sovereign credit risk channel
amplifies, as the primary source of financial contagion in the banking network. Systemic risk
within the northern euro area banking system is less apparent, while the southern euro area
banking system is more prone and susceptible to bank failures provoked by financial
contagion. By modelling the contagion path the results demonstrate that the euro area
banking system insists to be markedly vulnerable and conducive to systemic risks.
JEL Classification: G21, D85, G01, F37, G28.
Keywords: Systemic Risk, Maximum Entropy, Interbank Market, Financial Network, Sovereign Credit
Risk, European Banks.
* We are grateful to Franklin Allen, John Duca, Matthew Elliott, Mark Griffiths, Iftekhar Hasan, Andreas Kaeck, David
Newton, Mikhail Oet, and Steven Ongena as well as participants at the Financial Management Conference
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