IPCC-AR4模式对中国21世纪气候变化的情景预估.pdfVIP

27 4 Vol1 27, No14 2008 7 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH July , 2008 IPCC-AR4 21 江志红, 张 霞, 王 冀 ( , 210044) : ( IPCC) 13 , ( SRES A2A 1BB1) 100 , 21 , 11 6 e ~ e , 11 % ~ 20% A2A 1B B1 , 21 1 3 e 41 3e 21 8e , 31 e , 11% 91 6% 614% , 71 % : , , , 21 : IPCC- AR4; ; : 1000-0 8 ( 2008) 04-0787- 13 1 , [ 1~ 11] [ 1] [ 2] Guo et al1 [ 3] ; RegCM2 , 21 e , [ 4] 12% ; IPCC 7 SRES A2 B1 , 21 , [ ] , 21 ; Luo Yong 21 , 11 2 e ~ 912 e , [ 12] 80 , , , 21 119~ 1 e , 017~ 912 e , , , , [ 13] IPCC , , IPCC : 2007- 12-14; : 2008- 03-21 : ( 4067 043) ; ( 07KJA 17020) : ( 1963- ) , , , : E- mail: zhjiang@ nuist1 edu1 cn 788 27 ( the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC-AR4) 23 9 [ 14] , , SRES , 20 01 2 e / 10 , , , 21 , 20 , , IPCC-AR4 ( AR4 ) 21 , , ¹ AR4 1960~ 2000 , , 13 SRES A2SRES A 1B SRES B1 , 21 , , , 2 IPCC-AR4 / 0 ( Program of Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, PCM DI) 13 SRES A2A 1B B1 , 13 1 13 , , C