我国住房按揭的展与风险控制.pdfVIP

中 文 摘 要 我国的住房按揭贷款起步于1998 年，但真正发展还是在2000 年之 后。住房按揭贷款的超常规发展速度，一是源于国人住房需求的快速膨 胀和消费观念的迅速改变。二是源于银行普遍把住房按揭贷款看成优良 资产而不遗余力地大力发展。按照国际惯例，住房按揭贷款的风险暴露 期通常为3～8 年。这也就意味着国内银行住房按揭贷款可能已经步入了 违约高风险期。从实际情况看，一些银行住房按揭不良贷款绝对额与不 良贷款占比两项指标均处于上升期。可以预计，由于业务开展早期的粗 放型管理埋下的隐患，住房按揭贷款的风险还将持续暴露。 随着市场化 程度的提高，住房按揭贷款在安全性上存在着政策、市场、银行、抵 押物等风险.要实现住房按揭贷款的可持续发展,必须进行风险防范，因 此，如何防范和化解银行的信用风险是理论实践都迫切需要解决的问题。 本文系统介绍了住房按揭的产生和发展以及国内外在住房按揭品 种上的创新。分析了我国住房按揭的市场需求和存在的问题,通过实证分 析，归纳出了目前我国住房按揭还存在的风险,运用统计分析方法、经济 计量分析方法以及博弈论等对我国住房按揭的风险及其防范措施进行探 讨。 关键词：住房按揭 风险 2 Abstract Mortgage loans have blossomed up in China since 2000, which is only two years later when it first appeared in 1998 in our country. The abnormal developing speed of mortgage loans is first attributed to the rapid increase of housing needs from Chinese citizens and the thorough change of their consumption concepts. The second engine of mortgage loans’ development is generated by banks in China, who have taken these loans as eximinious asset and tried every mean to grow them. According to the international conventions, the risk exposing period of mortgage loans is 3 to 8 years, which indicates that many domestic mortgage loans are facing with high risks now. Actually, the index points of the absolute amount of ill loans and their percentage in bank loans are both on rise. It is predictable that the risk exposing of mortgage loans will continue due to the extensive management of these loans at the early stage. As the level of marketization rises, the “security” of mortgage loans comes together with risks from policies, market, banks and pledged staff. Therefore, Defensing risks will be a must to the sustaina