基于贝叶斯概率预报的水库汛限水位实时动态控制研究brReal-Time Dynamic Control of Reservoir Flood Limited Water Level Based on the Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting Processor.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 37-43 /10.12677/jwrr.2012.13006 Published Online June 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Real-Time Dynamic Control of Reservoir Flood Limited Water Level Based on the Bayesian Probabilistic * Forecasting Processor 1 2 1 2 Xiang Li , Shenglian Guo , Honggang Zhang , Dedi Liu 1Hydrology Bureau, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 2 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Email: lix@ Received: Jan. 18th th th , 2012; revised: Feb. 25 , 2012; accepted: Mar. 9 , 2012 Abstract: A real-time dynamic control of reservoir Flood Limited Water Level (FLWL) model was proposed based on the Bayesian forecasting processor. In terms of relative high inflow forecast precisions of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), the different pre-release and refill strategies were implemented according to the reservoir inflow forecasting results. On account of inflow uncertainty, the deterministic inflow forecasts were transformed to probabilistic forecasts. Case study results indicate that the proposed model can greatly in- crease hydropower generation compared with current operation rules. It is also shown that the proposed model could make use of the future inflow magnitudes and provide more information for decision-makers, which could be in favor real-time and dynamic control of reservoir FLWL. Keywords: Flood Limit