福建农业气象灾害的产量灾损风险评估.pdfVIP

18 1 V o.l 18, No. 1 2009 2 JOURNA L OF NATURAL D ISA STER S F eb. , 2009 : 2009) 1 2 3 2 张 星 , 张春桂 , 吴菊薪, 陈 惠 1. , 35000 1; 2. , 35000 1; 3. , 322 100; ) : , 1981- 2005 , , , , , , , , , 5% ~ 45% , 5% ~ 70% , 5% ~ 30% , 5% ~ 20% : ; ; ; : S42 : A R isk assessm en t of yield losses from agrom eteorological disasters in Fuj ian Province 1 2 3 2 ZHANG X ing , ZHANG Chungu i, WU Jux in , CHEN H u i 1. Fu jian M eteoro log ical Bu reau, Fu zhou 35000 1, Ch ina; 2. Fu jian Science In stitute of M eteorology, Fuzhou 35000 1, C h ina; 3. D ongyang M eteorolog ical Bu reau, D ongy ang 322100, Ch ina) Abs tract: In v iew of the difficu lty to separate the m eteoro log ica l y ie ld from a data set of crop yie ld in eva luating y ie ld losses by stat istical m odels, a m ethod based fuzzy m athem atics w as introduced in th is paper to assess the risk of y ield losses due to agrom eteoro log ical d isasters in Fujian P rovince, in w hich the data of area dam aged by d isas ters in the whole prov ince from 198 1 to 2005 w ere m ainly u sed to calcu late the tota l decreased y ield, then the per centage of yie ld lossesw as analyzed u sing the fuzzy m ethod, and finally