基于线性回归的银行卡业务量因素分析论文本科毕设论文.doc

基于线性回归的银行卡业务量因素分析 摘 要关键词：Analysis of the Bank Card Business Factors Based on Linear Regression Author: Zhang Wei-min Tutor: Guo Jing-mei Abstract Regression analysis is a widely used statistical analysis method. It has been successfully used in financial, economic, medical and other fields. It is used for statistical analysis of the relationship between things, focus on the number of changes of variables, and through the formal description and the relationship between the regression equation, to help people grasp the other variables by one or more variables influence degree, and provide the scientific basis for predicting. Using the merchandise demand theory as the base, this paper takes bank cards as the object and tries to analyze the factors influencing the bank card business. Basing on the Ordinary Least Squares, this paper analyzes the data with the regression method. The dependent variable is bank card business and the independent factors include the amount of the shops engaged by special arrangement, the amount of the savings outlets, the amount of the ATM and the amount of the POS. Then this paper analyzes these variables using SPSS, with the analysis of theory and demonstration. We can find out the remarkable factors which influence the independent variable, so that offer the positive groundwork of management decision-making for developing bank card operation. Key Words: Regression analysis, Environment, Statistical test, Bank card 目 录1 绪论 1 1.1 课题背景及意义 1 1.2 研究的思路与方法 1 1.3 论文构成及研究内容 2 2 银行卡产业发展状况 3 2.1 我国银行卡业务发展现状 3 2.2 我国银行卡受理环境现状 3 2.3 银行卡业务量与受理环境的关联性 4 3 回归分析 5 3.1 一元线性回归分析 5 3.1.1 一元线性回归分析的基本原理和方法 5 3.1.2 决定系数 6 3.2 多元线性回归分析 7 3.2.1 多元回归模型与回归方程 7 3.2.2 多元回归方程的多重判定系数 8 3.2.3 多重共线性现象 9 3.3 变量选择 9 3.3.1 变量的选择过程 10 3.3.2 变量选择的方法 10 4 回归分析的统计检验 11 4.1 回归方程的显著性检验 11 4.1.1 多元线性回归方程的显著性检验 12 4.2 回归系数的显著性检验 12 4.2.1 一元线性回归系数的检验 12 4.2.2 多元线性回归系数的检验 13 4.3 残差分析 13 4.3.1 残差分析内容 14 4.3.2 残差序列的独立性 14 4.4 方差分析 15 4.4.1 方差分析简介