中级宏观经济学讲义11说课.pptVIP

Intermediate Macroeconomics 11 经济增长 Goal 建立一个最简单的模型 1) 解释为什么经济总量在长期会增加 2) 解释为什么人均收入会不断上升 3) 哪些因素决定和影响产出/收入的增加 （为什么不同国家在不同时期产出/收入会有不同） 增长模型的思路 产出增长源于 1）资源禀赋 2）技术 Solow Growth Model The supply for goods Production function: Characteristics: CRS Per Capita --- Solow Growth Model The production function Solow Growth Model Crucial assumption Decreasing MPK!!! Solow Growth Model The demand for goods --- Solow model assumes that the demand for goods comes from consumption and investment only (closed economy w/o G) Solow Growth Model Output, C, K accumulation Solow Growth Model Change in k Increase investment Decrease depreciation Net change in k: Solow Growth Model Steady-state （稳定状态） 资本边际产出递减： 随着资本积累（S进而转化为I）↑，MPK↓，终趋于常数，此时社会资本存量不会再增/减，净投资为零，产出稳定。 Solow Growth Model Solow Growth Model Example: Cobb-Douglas function Function for y? Steady-state k*? Solow Growth Model Steady-state level of capital has nothing to do with the starting level of capital. Determinants of k* are: --- savings rate --- depreciation rate --- technology Solow Growth Model 试用索洛模型解释为什么上世纪五十年代的中国和二战后的日本和德国都经历了经济飞速增长的时期。 试用索洛模型解释为什么日本人均收入水平比大多数发达国家高？ Solow Growth Model Increase in the depreciation rate ( ) Solow Growth Model Increase in the savings rate (s) Solow Growth Model Higher s ? higher k ? higher y However, individuals do NOT care about k or y. They only care about the amount of goods/services they can consume. The steady state k* with the highest level of consumption is called “the golden rule level of capital accumulation.” Solow Growth Model From the Solow model ? At the steady state: Choose k* to maximize c* Solow Growth Model What if k* k** ? Solow Growth Model The transition path Summary Solow growth model 通过资本积累（储蓄转化为投资）解释经济增长 但是， 为什么总产出会持续增长而非达到所谓的稳态？ 为什么人们的生活水平也会不断提高？ 索洛模型---人口增长 外生人口增长： 人均资本存量的变动： 索洛模型---人口增长 人口增长的影响 索洛模型---人口增长 更高速的人口增长使得在稳定状态下 人均资本存量↓ 人均产出水平↓ 人均消费水平 ↓ 黄金准则M