河北省人口老龄化对经济发展与老年社会保障的影响研究.pdf

摘 要 摘 要 人口老龄化是我国当前人口年龄结构变动的重要趋势。河北省人口老龄化日益凸 显，并由此产生了一系列的经济和社会问题。本文首先建立了河北省人口老龄化与经济 发展的指标体系，作为后续分析的理论基础，并在此基础上分析了河北省人口老龄化现 状，河北省人口老龄化对经济发展和老年社会保障的影响，最后针对实证分析结果，提 出了相应的对策和建议。 本文首先采用描述性统计方法，通过图表形式直观的分析了河北省人口老龄化的现 状，并凸显了河北省人口老龄化中存在的 3 个特点：女性老龄化程度高于男性、农村老 龄化程度高于城市、老龄化呈现高龄化趋势。其次，通过建立 ARDL 模型分析了人口老 龄化与经济发展的长期关系，得出了人口老龄化对经济发展有负向影响，且该影响存在 滞后作用。再次，通过协整分析探讨了河北省人口老龄化对老年社会保障的影响，并得 出河北省人口老龄化与医疗费用和养老基金之间并不存在明显的长期关系。最后在上述 分析的基础上得出了相应的对策。 关键词 人口老龄化 经济发展 老年社会保障 ARDL 模型 协整 I Abstract Abstract Aging of the population is an important trend of age structure changes of the population. The population aging of Hebei province is becoming increasingly prominent, which leading to a series of economic and social problems. This paper firstly establishes the index system of the aging and economic development of Hebei Province,which act as the theoretical basis for the following analysis.And,based on it,the paper analyzes of present situation of aging , the impact aging act on the economic development，including the social security for the elderly,in Hebei province .What’s more,according to the results of empirical analysis above, the paper proposed the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Firstly,descriptive statistical method,which including both graphs and forms, is used through the analysis of present situation of population aging in Hebei Province, this part highlights three characteristics of population aging of Hebei Province: the aging degree of female is higher than the male, the aging degree of the rural is higher than the city, the aging’s trend in elderly ones. Secondly, by establishing ARDL model which leads to the resul