中国出口贸易增长波动影响因素分析.pdf

TheEffectFactors of Analysis inChina theFluctuationof Growth Export Abstract After30 ofreformand of export—orientedstrategy years’developmentopeningup，the of resultsSOthat hasbecomeoneofthree Chinahadachievedalot significant export huge in horse-drawnvehicals investment．At ranksfirsttheworld equal研m present，ourexport total and rankstllirdinthe is andthe of very export world．However,011Iexportfragile import becauseofits onthe downwhen market．So，itsharplydrops highdependenceforeign fluctuationof isboundtoeffectits internationalfinancialcrisis．The export encountering this outthe shockand smooth of isseekingendogenousexogenous growth．Thepurposepaper influence andshort-termfluctuation shockfactorswhich Our export’Slong-termgrowth and more，thewill through analysisquantitativeanalysis．What’Spaper give qualitative inordertoensurethesmooth ofour proposals growthexport． theinfluencemerchanism Basedonthe discusses researches，thisfirstly previous paper of fluctuationtoChinese authorbelievesthattheinfluenceare export economy．The pathes resource and progressforeignexchange allocation，investment,employment，technology the trade situationfromthetwo reserves．Secondly，thispaperanalyzesexport fluctuating tothe oftotal andstructure．TheusestheH—Pfilter method aspects quantity paper analysis total 30 tradehas export quantity,whichdemonatrates：duringyears’reformprocess，China 4 fluctuations．Chinatradeis 9 fluctuationsand export experiencedshort-period long-period isfierceand variance．Structure intheforth fluctuationtimewhich great analysis’S cycle form resultshowes：China’S structuretransformedfromthelabor-intensive export products the into mechanicalandelectrical and present，the products capitaltechnology·intensive．At becomethemain trade proportion high—techproduct product．However,theprocessing isstill andthe marketconcentration tobestill excessivelyhigh export degreeexcessivelyhigh． traditionalinternationaltrade the Once basedonthe more，the theory,fromqualita