第二讲全球经济失衡与再平衡.ppt

第一讲 全球经济失衡与再平衡(Unbalanced and global rebalancing) 第一节 经济繁荣与失衡 1、经济繁荣（经济快速增长） 上个世纪大危机后全球摆脱金本位制约束：积极的财政政策与货币政策交相辉映，使发达国家政府目标得以侧重于内部平衡（以经济增长为中心）。 良好地国际环境促成大缓和(the Great Moderation\the Great Stability---高增长低通胀)：后冷战时代（社会主义阵营）全球化加速，生产要素和产品市场大幅度扩张使发达国家贸易条件优化。 Great Moderation →Great Deviation → Great Recession “I define Great Deviation as the recent period during which macroeconomic policy became more interventionist, less rules-based, and less predictable. ” ---John B. Taylor “Lessons from the Great Deviation” （/publications/hoover-digest/article/49151） 2003年10月，英国央行行长称，过去十年是“nice”十年：non-inflationary consistently expansionary 2、经济失衡 全球经济运行中，商品和服务的卖方，比如中国、日本和德国通过将外汇储备借给买方，从而间接为买方提供融资。买方包括美国以及目前已经深陷困境的、被称作“地中海俱乐部”的南欧国家。这直接显示为各国的外部失衡。 内部失衡的标志：储蓄与消费构成、增长动力结构 美国：低储蓄率、高消费率 。美国在金融危机爆发以前，储蓄率已经降到零，甚至是负数。 中国：高储蓄率、低消费率。 外部失衡的标志：国际收支状况 美中全球作为两个经济增长极，经济结构互补，通过资本流动，实现了各自会计学意义上的平衡---国际收支平衡表，实质上的全球失衡---各自保持持续长期的贸易顺差和逆差。In 2011, the US maintained a trade deficit with at least 91 countries, most of which are in the developing world. 经常账户盈余：瑞士对欧洲与中国对全球的影响 Daniel Gros( 11 October 2012) An overlooked currency war in Europe A current-account surplus is the mirror image of a capital export. A country that is running persistent current-account surpluses is thus persistently exporting capital. An important question to consider is which sector is investing abroad, the private or the public sector? If it is the public sector which invests abroad, in particular if it is done by the central bank via the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves, this is often called ‘currency manipulation’. Most of China‘s foreign-exchange reserves are invested in dollars, whereas Switzerland（CH ，Confoederatio Helvetica） has invested mainly in euros. Most of the euro-denominated investments of the Swiss National Bank have presumably been in bank deposits and securities of the core countries. This means that its interventions have led to an even larger liquidity surplus within the German banking