基于猩红热的传染病自动预警和人工网络实时时空预警效果评价.docVIP

基于猩红热的传染病自动预警和人工网络实时时空扫描预警效果评价 Evaluation of Effects of Automatic Early Warning Information of Infectious Disease and Artificial Network Realtime Space-time Scanning Early Warning Based on Scarlet Fever 摘要 目的 基于猩红热评价传染病自动预警系统和人工实时预警两种方法的效果。方法 对传染病自动预警系统及人工实时预警发出的预警情况统计其阳性预测值，进行χ2检验。结果 传染病自动预警系统预警阳性预测值为0，人工实时预警阳性预测值66.67%，后者优于前者。结论 传染病自动预警系统应根据不同疾病特点，灵活确定首要扫描对象。 [关键词] 传染病自动预警；猩红热；评价 中国图书资料分类号：R181.1 文献标识码：A Subject Evaluation of Effects of Automatic Early Warning Information of Infectious Disease and Artificial Network Realtime Space-time Scanning Early Warning Based on Scarlet Fever Author ?GAO Yan-qing,LIU Hai-bo. Beijing Daxing District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing ,102600, China [Abstract] ?Objective To evaluate the effect of automatic early warning information of infectious disease and artificial network realtimes space-time scanning early warning based on scarlet fever. . Method To count the Positive predictive value of the automatic early warning information of infectious disease and artificial network realtimes space-time scanning early warning,and do the x2 test.燫esults The sPositive predictive value of automatic early warning information of infectious disease is 0,and it of artificial network realtimes space-time scanning early warning is 66.67%.The latter is superior to the former. Conclusions The automatic early warning information system of infectious disease should determine the primary scanning of the object according to the characteristic fo each infectious disease. [Key words] Automatic Early Warning Information of Infectious Disease, Scarlet Fever, Evaluation 基金项目：北京市大兴区科技计划项目，编号1254 作者简介：高艳青，女，主管医师，主要从事疾病预防控制管理工作 作者单位：北京市大兴区疾病预防控制中心 通讯作者：刘海博，mouse_lhb@ 传染病预警是在预测的基础上，及早发现传染病异常变化的苗头，早期发出警报，使相关部门和影响人群及时做出反应，达到早发现早处理的目的，预防或减少危害。其最重要的目的是及时发现暴发和流行的可能性，以采取措施减低危害。中国在SARS疫情后探索并改进传染病报告模式，于2004年建立了覆盖全国的网络直报系统，使传染病报告的及时性提高了10倍，也为发现和报告传染病等突发公共卫生事件创造了条件[1]。2008年4月21日全国启动传染病自动预警时间模型试运行和时空模型试点工作，对相关传染病进行自动预警，但其并未代替日常人工网络实时监测。本文利用2011年北京市大