中国外汇储备适规模及投资管理探究.docVIP

摘要 近年来由于多方面的原因，我国外汇储备增加很快，从2006开始，我国外汇储备规模一直居于世界第一位。外汇储备的快速增长，对我国经济社会产生了重大影响，也引起了人们的广泛关注。外汇储备的适度规模问题现已成为学术界关注和讨论的热点话题，全球金融危机的爆发，使得国际经济形式更加动荡与复杂，在此背景下分析与探讨外汇储备的投资管理更具有现实意义。 本文以外汇储备作为研究对象，针对外汇储备的适度规模及投资管理分别建立模型，探究当前我国外汇储备适度性规模的确定以及投资管理优化问题。 首先，论文从外汇储备适度规模的理论出发，回顾和评价了国内外的各种外汇储备适度规模的理论和投资管理理论的演进，并在此基础上提出适度性的定义。接着，结合我国国情，运用阿格沃尔模型及比例因素分析法对我国的适度储备规模进行实证分析，得出的结论是：适度储备规模是一个动态的量，处在不断的变化中，针对这种性质应设定一个“适度”的区间范围；同时分析还表明，我国目前的储备超过了实际所需水平，存在过剩。然后，对如何优化外汇储备投资管理进行分析讨论，先是运用资产组合模型，以汇率风险为研究对象，讨论了我国外汇储备中币种组合优化问题，分析结果表明储备中美元资产比重过高，应选择适当的时机和操作策略降低美元资产的比重。最后，针对美元资产占较大比重的现实情况，将我国美元储备资产组合与其他国家相比较，分析结果表明：美元资产的投资组合存在结构不合理，债券类投资比例偏高，投资方式较为保守，投资收益率不高的现状，针对此现状提出的对策是更多地投资收益性较高的美元资产，同时拓宽外汇储备的投资渠道，如积极利用储备建立健全我国能源资源的战略储备，积极利用储备引进生物技术、新能源技术等。 关键词：外汇储备，适度规模，币种结构，资产结构，投资管理 Chinas Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Investment Management Inquiry Abstract In recent years, duing to various reasons, Chinas foreign exchange reserves increased rapidly, from the beginning of 2006, Chinas foreign exchange reserves have been ranking first in the world. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, China has had a major economic and social impact, the situation has aroused extensive attention. Appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves has become a hot topic and the issues concerned in academic circles; The global financial crisis broke out, making the international economy more volatile and complex form, in this context ，the investment management of foreign exchange reserves become more realistic. In this paper, foreign exchange reserves as the research object, the appropriate scale for the foreign exchange reserves and investment management models were established to explore the current moderation in Chinas foreign exchange reserves, and investment management to determine the size of the optimization problem. First, the papers from the Foreign Exchange Reserves in theory, review and evaluation of the various foreign exchange reserves at the theory of moderate scale home and abroad, and puts forward